108,000 people. The divisions were everywhere. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". All other 21 counties voted Republican. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. All Rights Reserved. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Outstanding. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. First, what are bellwether counties? Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. (Sorry, not sorry.) The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Republicans have paid some attention. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Arapahoe County. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, (The highest value being again 66.1%). Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. 03:30. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. But both are worth watching. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. 7. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). They simply vote on merit. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. It's the wrong question. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Team up with others in your region, and help out by "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? i.e. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Telegram Telegram Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. 6. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Trump won 18 of the 19. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. In their . Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. In 2020, a single. Demographics (84) Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Their concerns are real. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. But it's also not unprecedented. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. 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